报告题目：Dynamics of a stochastic SIS epidemic on networks

报告人：    刘桂荣 教授

报告时间：2021年4月18日（周日）16:00—17:30

报告地点：3044am永利集团欢迎您学术报告厅

报告摘要:   We derive a stochastic SIS pairwise model by considering the change in the variables of our system due to an event. Based on diffusion approximation, we construct a low-dimensional system of stochastic differential equations that can be used to describe the diffusion limit of a stochastic epidemic on a regular network. Mathematical treatment of the model yields explicit expressions for each variable at equilibrium. Then, we perform a comparison between the stochastic pairwise model and the stochastic mean-field SIS model to inform about the interactions between noise and network processes. We find that the variances for these two models are almost equal when the number of neighbours is large. We explore the variance of the early growth of the epidemic when the level of infection is increasing exponentially. We provide an argument that our approach is asymptotically exact, and simulate epidemics spreading on networks to confirm the utility of our analytical results.

报告人简介: 刘桂荣 山西大学教授，博士生导师。2007年毕业于山西大学，获博士学位。主要从事微分方程与生物数学方向的研究工作，发表SCI论文40余篇。主持国家自然科学基金4项、人社部留学回国人员科技活动择优资助项目(优秀类) 1项、省级项目5项。2010年，以第一完成人获得山西省教学成果一等奖；2011年，入选山西大学青年英才计划；2012年，入选山西省高等学校优秀青年学术带头人支持计划；2015年，以第一完成人获山西省科学技术奖 (自然科学类) 二等奖。

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